Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 1.476642 1.541933 1.609742 1.685652 1.768541 1.856624 1.957726
2026-02-01 1.389376 1.475482 1.567844 1.674948 1.796596 1.931538 2.094081
2026-02-08 1.324252 1.423599 1.532720 1.662668 1.814855 1.989611 2.208795
2026-02-15 1.270909 1.379471 1.500985 1.648858 1.826520 2.036672 2.309872
2026-02-22 1.236483 1.353738 1.487244 1.652985 1.856961 2.105246 2.439756
2026-03-01 1.187030 1.307480 1.446286 1.621086 1.840021 2.112261 2.489213
2026-03-08 1.148497 1.272036 1.415984 1.599683 1.833598 2.130479 2.552737
2026-03-15 1.117903 1.244542 1.393641 1.586325 1.835615 2.158409 2.630037
2026-03-22 1.107001 1.240032 1.398630 1.606762 1.881395 2.246113 2.797893
2026-03-29 1.100710 1.240578 1.409426 1.634494 1.937574 2.350946 3.000496
2026-04-05 1.079666 1.221991 1.395295 1.628828 1.947862 2.391444 3.108329
2026-04-12 1.062684 1.207792 1.386007 1.628792 1.965348 2.442677 3.237379
2026-04-19 1.032624 1.176825 1.354923 1.599305 1.941395 2.433134 3.268817
2026-04-26 1.013202 1.158719 1.339745 1.590471 1.945938 2.466065 3.374833
2026-05-03 0.994170 1.140522 1.323781 1.579763 1.946955 2.493215 3.473219
2026-05-10 0.975556 1.122329 1.307200 1.567433 1.944753 2.514795 3.563460
2026-05-17 0.964531 1.113533 1.302590 1.571302 1.966249 2.574844 3.732032
2026-05-24 0.941156 1.088163 1.275273 1.542323 1.937139 2.550820 3.734998
2026-05-31 0.922486 1.068533 1.255139 1.522842 1.921534 2.548015 3.779797
2026-06-07 0.907432 1.053303 1.240509 1.510669 1.916454 2.562250 3.860718
2026-06-14 0.904654 1.054061 1.247350 1.529320 1.959526 2.660692 4.132369
2026-06-21 0.904387 1.058055 1.258586 1.554592 2.014108 2.783468 4.481785
2026-06-28 0.893280 1.047351 1.249348 1.549434 2.019737 2.819076 4.635651